Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
